Home Values in California are like the micro-climates

Home values have dropped substantially everywhere but there is a wide variation between cities and neighborhoods. Our neighborhood near Mt Diablo in Danville has held up substantially better that other areas nearby falling 9.6% over the past year compared to 12.9% for Danville overall and 26.3% for California overall. The market fall has essentially eliminated most new subdivision growth and home prices are depressed while the market clears the foreclosures. Once that process is complete I expect our closer-in neighborhood values to rebound substantially and perform better than other areas. Patience!!!!
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AdamS 2yrs+
I think you are correct energygeek, but the problem is when? Alot of people need the rebound to occur sooner rather than latter, but is simply not happening. When you think the market will recover? I personally don't think it will come until early 2010.

AJ
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CommunityMan 2yrs+
Depending on the area it may take much longer. People will have to sit tight and do their best to survive the foreclosure crisis.
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energygeek 2yrs+
When is a good question. I agree with AJ's assessment of early 2010.

We need to clear the market of foreclosed properties and restore a sense of confidence in the economy sufficient to get hiring going again. The historic average for recessions has been about 18 months and while this one may be deeper than some that typically means that the rebound will be faster and more substantial. In addition, the recent US Government actions to get the toxic assets off the balance sheets of banks is a real boost to recovery. Bottom line, I suspect recovery will begin in Q3 of 2009 but we won't feel like we are in recovery until early to mid 2010.
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AdamS 2yrs+
Very insightful energygeek. I'm glad you mentioned "restore a sense of confidence in the economy" It's amazes me how all the media is reporting doom and gloom, yet they should be reporting about the good things are happening. If people felt a little more confident about things, their spending habits might be a little more positive, and help stimulate the economy.

What's the solution to getting clearing the market of all the foreclosed homes?

AJ
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nyboy666 2yrs+
There is still value in homes that are set for foreclosure, it's just that right now nobody is buying. Best way to clear them is to get confidence back, people will then see they are undervalued and speculators might just take a bet on some homes.

But confidence is a funny thing - you can lose it in 5 mins, but it takes weeks, months, years to get it back.

I do agree that the media is not helping - but reporting the good news doesn't sell papers.
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energygeek 2yrs+
Very perceptive, nyboy666. In my own neighborhood after months of declining home values, one home sells for a substantial premium over the asking price. There does not appear to be anything extraordinary about it, so I assume the buyer fell in love with that house, saw it as undervalued, and didn't want to lose it in competing bids.
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nyboy666 2yrs+
We will all look back in years and regret not buying some of those homes selling at fire sale prices!
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AdamS 2yrs+
I agree nyboy666, but unfortunately not many people have the liquid cash reserves to make good out of this wonderful opportunity!
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